How long before Antarctica becomes History?

Probably not as long away as you think, well, parts of it. Antarctica is very large, but sections are disappearing.

Earlier this week scientist announced that the Larson C Ice shelf is badly deteriorating and has a crack across it. The problem is the Ice reflects the suns warmth, as it melts there is less reflective surface, once the ice cracks there will be a gap in the ice sheets and this allows the sun to heat the water in between speeding the melting process. The Larson C Ice Shelf is the size of Scotland so this is a rather large chuck to separate.

Now NASA has announced that the Larson B Ice Shelf is in trouble. Back in 2002 it lost a section the size of Rhode Island, leaving what is now about 618 square miles. NASA announced this week that Shelf B is in the stages of imminent demise, and will disintegrate completely before 2020, (5 years). The shelf will break up into small icebergs, each melting as they drift.

The loss of the sea shelf will not impact the Oceans levels directly because it is already mostly submerged, but with the shelf gone the glaciers behind it will increase drift and melt. Behind the Ice sheet are the Leppard and Flask Glaciers, these have already increased flow and between 2002 and 2011 have dropped in elevation between 45 and 65 feet. When these glaciers leave land and enter the water the ocean height will increase.

The good news is that the Antarctic peninsular is still stable, that section contains more glacial frontage which is still protected by the peninsular.

For an example of scale, the U.S.G.S. estimates that the Antarctic Glacial region could contribute up to 1.5 feet of global ocean rise. (This includes all Antarctica not just the Larson B and C glaciers).

According to the Jet propulsion Laboratory's Khanzender, West Antarctica, East Antarctica and the Greenland shelf hold more Globally distributed water. And while no one is saying all of the ice on the Antarctica  Peninsular or Antarctica will be in the ocean, but even 10 to 20cm would be a severe problem for the planet.